Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction for Urban Road Sections Based on Time Series Analysis and LSTM_BILSTM Method

Mingfang Huang Jianhu Zheng

2020

Traffic congestion is a thorny issue to many large and medium-sized cities, posing a serious threat to sustainable urban development. Recently, intelligent traffic system (ITS) has emerged as an effective tool to mitigate urban congestion. The key to the ITS lies in the accurate forecast of traffic flow. However, the existing forecast methods of traffic flow cannot adapt to the stochasticity and sheer length of traffic flow time series. To solve the problem, this paper relies on deep learning (DL) to forecast traffic flow through time series analysis. The authors developed a traffic flow forecast model based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) network. The proposed model was compared with two classic forecast models, namely, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the backpropagation neural network (BPNN) model, through long-term traffic flow forecast experiments, using an actual traffic flow time series from OpenITS. The experimental results show that the proposed LSTM network outperformed the classic models in prediction accuracy. Our research discloses the dynamic evolution law of traffic flow, and facilitates the decision-making of traffic management.

Krishnadas Janardhanan Yuvaraj Natarajan Sameer Alani + 4 lainnya

6 Oktober 2023

This paper examines the use of deep recurrent neural networks to classify traffic patterns in smart cities. We propose a novel approach to traffic pattern classification based on deep recurrent neural networks, which can effectively capture traffic patterns’ dynamic and sequential features. The proposed model combines convolutional and recurrent layers to extract features from traffic pattern data and a SoftMax layer to classify traffic patterns. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms existing methods regarding accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. Furthermore, we provide an in-depth analysis of the results and discuss the implications of the proposed model for smart cities. The results show that the proposed model can accurately classify traffic patterns in smart cities with a precision of as high as 95%. The proposed model is evaluated on a real-world traffic pattern dataset and compared with existing classification methods.

Mengzhang Li Zhanxing Zhu

15 Desember 2020

Spatial-temporal data forecasting of traffic flow is a challenging task because of complicated spatial dependencies and dynamical trends of temporal pattern between different roads. Existing frameworks usually utilize given spatial adjacency graph and sophisticated mechanisms for modeling spatial and temporal correlations. However, limited representations of given spatial graph structure with incomplete adjacent connections may restrict effective spatial-temporal dependencies learning of those models. Furthermore, existing methods were out at elbows when solving complicated spatial-temporal data: they usually utilize separate modules for spatial and temporal correlations, or they only use independent components capturing localized or global heterogeneous dependencies. To overcome those limitations, our paper proposes a novel Spatial-Temporal Fusion Graph Neural Networks (STFGNN) for traffic flow forecasting. First, a data-driven method of generating “temporal graph” is proposed to compensate several genuine correlations that spatial graph may not reflect. STFGNN could effectively learn hidden spatial-temporal dependencies by a novel fusion operation of various spatial and temporal graphs, treated for different time periods in parallel. Meanwhile, by integrating this fusion graph module and a novel gated convolution module into a unified layer parallelly, STFGNN could handle long sequences by learning more spatial-temporal dependencies with layers stacked. Experimental results on several public traffic datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance consistently than other baselines.

Jingxuan Li Teng Liu Yang Xing + 7 lainnya

1 Oktober 2022

Accurate trajectory prediction of surrounding vehicles enables lower risk path planning in advance for autonomous vehicles, thus promising the safety of automated driving. A low-risk and high-efficiency path planning approach is proposed for autonomous driving based on the high-performance and practical trajectory prediction method. A long short-term memory (LSTM) network is trained and tested using the highD dataset, and the validated LSTM is used to predict the trajectories of surrounding vehicles combining the information extracted from vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) technology. A risk assessment and mitigation-based local path planning algorithm is proposed according to the information of predicted trajectories of surrounding vehicles. Two driving scenarios are extracted and reconstructed from the highD dataset for validation and evaluation, i.e., an active lane-change scenario and a longitudinal collision-avoidance scenario. The results illustrate that the risk is mitigated and the driving efficiency is improved with the proposed path planning algorithm comparing to the constant-velocity prediction and the prediction method of the nonlinear input–output (NIO) network, especially when the velocity and trajectory with sudden changes. Note to Practitioners—This article was motivated by the problem of promising the safety decision-making and path planning through accurate environment prediction. There are two main parts included in this article. First, this article proposed one pragmatic approach to predict the environment movement correctly based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) approach. The prediction performance of LSTM was compared with nonlinear input–output (NIO). The results showed that the LSTM approach has a significant advantage in motivation prediction of the surrounded vehicles during path planning. The second part of this article is to make the decision and realize local path planning based on the risk assessment. The potential field-based approach is implemented on the risk assessment based on these accurate predictions. Some primary results demonstrate that the decision-making algorithm performs better under the accurate prediction model. The results also show that the safety and driving efficiency of the ego vehicle were improved by tracking the trajectory, which was planned based on the risk assessment. The only concern for the real-time application is the computation time; in future, we will figure it out how to further reduce the computation time.

Jingyu Chen Dawei Jin Mengran Xia

1 Januari 2023

This study proposes a short-term traffic flow prediction model that combines community detection-based federated learning with a graph convolutional network (GCN) to alleviate the time-consuming training, higher communication costs, and data privacy risks of global GCNs as the amount of data increases. The federated community GCN (FCGCN) can achieve timely, accurate, and safe traffic state predictions in the era of big traffic data, which is critical for the efficient operation of intelligent transportation systems. The FCGCN prediction process has four steps: dividing the local subnetwork with community detection, local training based on the global parameters, uploading the local model parameters, and constructing a global model prediction based on the aggregated parameters. Numerical results on the PeMS04 and PeMS08 datasets show that the FCGCN outperforms four benchmark models, namely, the long short-term memory (LSTM), convolutional neural network (CNN), ChebNet, and graph attention network (GAT) models. The FCGCN prediction is closer to the real value, with nearly the same performance as the global model at a lower time cost, thus achieving accurate and secure short-term traffic flow predictions with three parameters: flow, speed, and occupancy.