A survey of uncertainty in deep neural networks
Abstrak
Over the last decade, neural networks have reached almost every field of science and become a crucial part of various real world applications. Due to the increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions has become more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over- or under-confidence, i.e. are badly calibrated. To overcome this, many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network’s prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and various approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. For that, a comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and irreducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for calibrating neural networks, and give an overview of existing baselines and available implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in the fields of medical image analysis, robotics, and earth observation give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in the practical applications of neural networks. Additionally, the practical limitations of uncertainty quantification methods in neural networks for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.
Artikel Ilmiah Terkait
Zi Lin Jeremiah Zhe Liu Dustin Tran + 3 lainnya
1 Juni 2020
Bayesian neural networks (BNN) and deep ensembles are principled approaches to estimate the predictive uncertainty of a deep learning model. However their practicality in real-time, industrial-scale applications are limited due to their heavy memory and inference cost. This motivates us to study principled approaches to high-quality uncertainty estimation that require only a single deep neural network (DNN). By formalizing the uncertainty quantification as a minimax learning problem, we first identify input distance awareness, i.e., the model's ability to quantify the distance of a testing example from the training data in the input space, as a necessary condition for a DNN to achieve high-quality (i.e., minimax optimal) uncertainty estimation. We then propose Spectral-normalized Neural Gaussian Process (SNGP), a simple method that improves the distance-awareness ability of modern DNNs, by adding a weight normalization step during training and replacing the output layer with a Gaussian process. On a suite of vision and language understanding tasks and on modern architectures (Wide-ResNet and BERT), SNGP is competitive with deep ensembles in prediction, calibration and out-of-domain detection, and outperforms the other single-model approaches.
Senan Doyle Harmonie Dehaene A. Tucholka + 3 lainnya
5 Oktober 2022
The full acceptance of Deep Learning (DL) models in the clinical field is rather low with respect to the quantity of high-performing solutions reported in the literature. End users are particularly reluctant to rely on the opaque predictions of DL models. Uncertainty quantification methods have been proposed in the literature as a potential solution, to reduce the black-box effect of DL models and increase the interpretability and the acceptability of the result by the final user. In this review, we propose an overview of the existing methods to quantify uncertainty associated with DL predictions. We focus on applications to medical image analysis, which present specific challenges due to the high dimensionality of images and their variable quality, as well as constraints associated with real-world clinical routine. Moreover, we discuss the concept of structural uncertainty, a corpus of methods to facilitate the alignment of segmentation uncertainty estimates with clinical attention. We then discuss the evaluation protocols to validate the relevance of uncertainty estimates. Finally, we highlight the open challenges for uncertainty quantification in the medical field.
G. Rasool Sabeen Ahmed N. Bouaynaya + 1 lainnya
1 Februari 2024
The massive time-series production through the Internet of Things and digital healthcare requires novel data modeling and prediction. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are extensively used for analyzing time-series data. However, these models are unable to assess prediction uncertainty, which is particularly critical in heterogeneous and noisy environments. Bayesian inference allows reasoning about predictive uncertainty by estimating the posterior distribution of the parameters. The challenge remains in propagating the high-dimensional distribution through the sequential, non-linear layers of RNNs, resulting in mode collapse leading to erroneous uncertainty estimation and exacerbating the gradient explosion problem. This paper proposes a TRustworthy Uncertainty propagation for Sequential Time-series analysis (TRUST) in RNNs by introducing a Gaussian prior over network parameters and estimating the first two moments of the Gaussian variational distribution using the evidence lower bound. We propagate the variational moments through the sequential, non-linear layers of RNNs using the first-order Taylor approximation. The propagated covariance of the predictive distribution captures uncertainty in the output decision. The extensive experiments using ECG5000 and PeMS-SF classification and weather and power consumption prediction tasks demonstrate 1) significant robustness of TRUST-RNNs against noise and adversarial attacks and 2) self-assessment through the uncertainty that increases significantly with increasing noise.
Ling Huang Su Ruan Mengling Feng + 1 lainnya
9 Oktober 2023
The comprehensive integration of machine learning healthcare models within clinical practice remains suboptimal, notwithstanding the proliferation of high-performing solutions reported in the literature. A predominant factor hindering widespread adoption pertains to an insufficiency of evidence affirming the reliability of the aforementioned models. Recently, uncertainty quantification methods have been proposed as a potential solution to quantify the reliability of machine learning models and thus increase the interpretability and acceptability of the result. In this review, we offer a comprehensive overview of prevailing methods proposed to quantify uncertainty inherent in machine learning models developed for various medical image tasks. Contrary to earlier reviews that exclusively focused on probabilistic methods, this review also explores non-probabilistic approaches, thereby furnishing a more holistic survey of research pertaining to uncertainty quantification for machine learning models. Analysis of medical images with the summary and discussion on medical applications and the corresponding uncertainty evaluation protocols are presented, which focus on the specific challenges of uncertainty in medical image analysis. We also highlight some potential future research work at the end. Generally, this review aims to allow researchers from both clinical and technical backgrounds to gain a quick and yet in-depth understanding of the research in uncertainty quantification for medical image analysis machine learning models.
Bingzhe Wu Minlie Huang Mengting Hu + 2 lainnya
5 Juni 2023
As a main field of artificial intelligence, natural language processing (NLP) has achieved remarkable success via deep neural networks. Plenty of NLP tasks have been addressed in a unified manner, with various tasks being associated with each other through sharing the same paradigm. However, neural networks are black boxes and rely on probability computation. Making mistakes is inevitable. Therefore, estimating the reliability and trustworthiness (in other words, uncertainty) of neural networks becomes a key research direction, which plays a crucial role in reducing models' risks and making better decisions. Therefore, in this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of uncertainty-relevant works in the NLP field. Considering the data and paradigms characteristics, we first categorize the sources of uncertainty in natural language into three types, including input, system, and output. Then, we systemically review uncertainty quantification approaches and the main applications. Finally, we discuss the challenges of uncertainty estimation in NLP and discuss potential future directions, taking into account recent trends in the field. Though there have been a few surveys about uncertainty estimation, our work is the first to review uncertainty from the NLP perspective.
Daftar Referensi
0 referensiTidak ada referensi ditemukan.